Cryptocurrencies Part I - Introduction and Bitcoin

Ethereum ( and Ether):

Like bitcoin a decentralised blockchain but in this case with additional functionality. Ether is technically the currency that operates on the network and is generated on a proof of work basis as a reward for miners.



Unlike Bitcoin Ethereum has no supply cap and in that sense can’t be considered as addressing the expansion of fiat currency problem. 

Binance

Originally founded in China – the name is used for both an exchange and a coin. The coin was initially issued on the ETH network but is now on a Binance one.

Like Ethereum “mining” Binance coin is via proof of work.



Dogecoin:

A joke token – that many have taken to their hearts. The sheer audacity and of someone creating something theoretically totally worthless and yet allowing it to become a roaring (or should that be barking) success appeals to me enormously.



There is no implemented hard cap on the total supply of Dogecoinsbut it started with a supply limit of 100 billion coins, yet by mid-2015 the 100 billionth Dogecoin had been mined with an additional 5 billion coins put into circulation every year thereafter.

Shiba Inu:

Even more of a joke- set up as a competitor to Dogecoin and with all the supply ( a quadrillion) being issued at once.  Which does mean there is an upper limit.



Ironically given its parody status, in theory that should have made it closer to success as a currency with everyone having access to the issue. However in practice it attracted only a small group of crypto enthusiasts so we are still waiting for a world fiat beater. 

It is immediately apparent from the 5 charts that Crypto has gone a bit mad in 2021. It will be very interesting to compare the similarities between the charts and their relationship with the planets in this year.

One proviso, however, is the difficulty in finding valid charts for cryptocurrencies. In theory it ought to be out there on the internet in black and white ( or their digital equivalent), in practice there are a number of difficulties:

• Finding a location –especially where the crypto creator remains unidentified such as Satoshi Nakamoto for Bitcoin and Ryoshi for Shibu.
• Picking a chart. There are charts for the first mining, charts for the first transaction, charts for the first trade/exchange and charts for the first “real world” purchase. The problems in identifying the location means that there is some inconsistency in which chart I use
• Finding a time – dates are available – although the internet is not wholly reliable on these, a it of digging can usually turn up the right date in each case. For Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin an internet stamped time in UMT is available. For Binance the prospectus information gives times the subscription opened. Shiba Inu remains a time mystery so far  and I have used midnight. This latter chart is the least reliable, which is a shame as it would prove a very interesting study, as it is we can only look at it as an amusing afterthought.

Anyway, that’s enough preamble, let us bite the bullet and get on with the astrology

We won’t talk too much about the history. Let’s just focus on 2021. Our key periods of interest are inevitably going to be April/ May and October/ November

• ·        Bitcoin peak 9^th November
• ·        Ethereum peak 9^th November
• ·        Binance peak 3^rd May
• ·        Dogecoin peak 8^th May
• ·        Shiba Inu peak 28 October

Although the exact record highs differ, all the cryptos made some highs in both periods. So, I suppose it makes sense to pull up charts for May ( let’s try 8^th) and 9^th November to see if there are any global themes that stand out.

The key aspects at this point were:

• ·        Uranus square Saturn ( all year)
• ·        Jupiter square Venus and Pluto trine Venus ( short term)
• ·        Uranus conjunct Sun ( short term and was exact earlier in month)
• ·        Uranus sextile Mars and Mars square Moon (very short term)

In November the key aspects were much more plentiful:

• ·        Uranus square Saturn ( all year)
• ·        Uranus widely square Sun, Mars, Mercury ( short term but none exact that week)
• ·        Saturn square Mercury and Mars ( follows from above)
• ·        Pluto conjunct Moon ( short term but repeats monthly)
• ·        Neptune sextile Moon and trine Sun ( very short tem)
• ·        Jupiter square Sun ( applying but wide)
• ·        Mars conjunct Mercury and sextile Venus ( a few days)

Although there are some similarities, the conditions for the peaks were really quiet different, so the fact that there were two within six months may be incidental.

We know that Pluto, Neptune, Uranus and Saturn remained in their signs the whole year. Jupiter, however left Aquarius shortly after May 9 and went into Pisces. It went retrograde in the summer and then returned to Aquarius by the autumn. It is interesting to see that the peaks were NOT when Jupiter was in Pisces, indeed the autumn peak was when Jupiter was furthest back in Aquarius. However the peaks do partially correlate with when Saturn and Uranus were furthest apart from their exact square positions.

Nevertheless, this is tenuous and the conclusion must be that the transiting positions themselves were not as influential as the transits to the founding charts.

Before we turn to those charts though it is worth considering the wider picture. On the one hand we have lots of new and excited young speculators interested in cryptocurrencies, on the other we have the fact that crypto has no intrinsic value.

Fiat currency in theory has no intrinsic value but of course in practice it has a value based on the economic position of the country concerned. Even if this is declining as more fiat is issued it is still greater than zero unless and until the country is bankrupt. This may well prove to be the case for some countries in the coming decades but few hold fiat anyway – they hold shares, houses, etc etc, the picture for those will depend on the trajectory and we will look at it separately after we have finished with cryptos.

Cryptos intrinsic value is always zero as it is backed by absolutely nothing. 

However that does not mean its nominal value is zero as if enough people believe in it, it will be attractive to buy it is purely faith based. How long that faith lasts is the question, it could be days, months, years. In the absence of any intervention it could even be decades.

But the reality is that too much speculation attracts the regulators so its life is limited, as in China for example.

Enthusiasts always say that their Crypto is out of reach of their government – this may be technically true but in practice, once again, the facts do not support this. Governments can ensure that you cannot convert back to fiat ( a look back at what the US states did with online gambling gives an idea of the creative ways they can prevent access to things). Access to exchanges online in a country can be banned, taxes can be prohibitive, etc etc. Indeed it is a regulator’s legal team’s dream to come up with scenarios for tapping into your crypto earnings. Cash them while you can would be my recommendation.

As for the speculation itself.  Gambling is fine as long as you have the money to lose and in many cases the speculators have loads of paper gains so worst case they end up where they started, I only fear for the ones who have borrowed or bought near a peak and have their life savings to lose.

Anyway let’s turn to our chosen currencies now, starting with our old favourite.

 We’ve looked at the Bitcoin chart before, so we won’t spend time on the chart itself, let’s just turn to May and November

We can look at the wider picture for the year first.

• the progressed Sun was conjunct the progressed Jupiter but quincunx the progressed Ascendant
• Pluto was stationed conjunct the progressed Mercury in spring
• Neptune was conjunct the progressed Uranus and Venus but also opposite Saturn but also semisquare the progressed Sun and Jupiter
• Uranus was square the Node, sextile Venus and trine Mars
• Saturn was for part of the year stationed on Mercury opposite the Moon
• Jupiter retrograded back to Neptune and the Descendant
• Progressed Mars is approaching a conjunction with the natal Sun
• The progressed MC was trine natal Jupiter

That is some serious action. Without even looking at the details we know it would be a big year.

The spring top for Bitcoin was 14 April.

The progressed Sun had reached Jupiter in March suggesting a major increase in interest and in April Neptune was at 21 degrees and on the Uranus Saturn opposition so no surprises there was a turning point that month.

 At that point the Saturn/Uranus transiting square was not too close to the natal planets, so was allowing expansion prior to them moving closer and subduing it. Pluto was right in the middle of its station and about to retrograde also indicating a change of sentiment.

In mid April Mars was trine Jupiter which was close to the Ascendant/Neptune conjunction. That was highly expansionary and indicates large trade levels, especially since it was not far from its quincunx to the Bitcoin Sun and progressed Mars either. And at the same time the Sun and Mars were making a transiting sextile ( attended by Mercury). Again in sextile to Jupiter and thus to the Descendant and Neptune. It is clear that the conditions for a boom were in but so were the conditions for an imminent change of direction. 

In October and early November Jupiter was stationed on the Descendant/Neptune conjunction – that is big bubble territory. Things were likely to slowly dissipate as Jupiter moved on.

On 9^th November the overall top, we have the following conditions: Neptune continued its  20-21 Pisces position conjunct natal Uranus it was operating in all year, and was still sextile the Sun progressed Mars conjunction but now the Progressed Moon had reached 20 Capricorn so was further activating this. This was a aspect in place for a few months.

Pluto was still within 2 degrees of progressed Mercury but the midday chart on 9^th was activated by the Moon at that point – another suggestion of a turning point.

On the other hand Saturn was conjunct natal Mercury, a negative influence, but it is worth noting that it had been stationed opposite the Moon am even more negative influence so things had improved somewhat in those weeks. But on 9^th November Mercury and Mars were conjunct and square both the Moon and Mercury, once more a typical heavy trading indicator but also a tunring point one.

Also on 9^th Venus was trine the Ascendant and had passed a conjunction with natal Pluto – a sort of sweet spot. And finally the Sun was just about to conjunct the IC- an absolutely classic turning point.

So once more we had all the background conditions in place for a top and the triggers for a change of direction.

It is worth a quick look at the position a month later in contrast.

Jupiter had moved away from the Ascendant and Neptune suggesting that peak would not repeat. The progressed Sun is moving permanently away from Jupiter too although this is a very slow process. We should also note how trading increased around 4^th December when Mars was at around 24 degrees- this gives us an indication of what to look forward to in future months.

Neptune was still at 20 PIsces and the Sun/progressed Mars Moon was even closer so this might imply ongoing bubbles. Interesting that this is still in effect- so we are still in upside ( well the price are better than a year ago). We should bear this is mind. Things are not as great as November 8/9^th but they are still relatively great.

Pluto is still conjunct mercury but has now being joined by Venus. Venus with Pluto is rarely positive for values unless accompanied by a Jupiter trine etc.

On the positive side Saturn has moved away from Mercury but it is now square Uranus which is generally disruptive for everything (mainly Covid related it would seem).

Today ( 21^st December) the Sun has moved into Capricorn and will conjunct Pluto BUT Mars is currently at 4 degrees sextiling the progressed Sun/Jupiter so holding prices and volume up.



Although I don’t intend to do a full forecast here we can extrapolate a little to April 2022 and the Jupiter Neptune conjunction at 23 Pisces. That should create the conditions for a rise , you would think, but at the same time Saturn and Mars are conjunct on the Descendant – a potential big negative. It will for sure be an interesting month.

But what we do know for sure is that the planetary activity in relation to the chart is more important than the day’s planetary activity alone.