A look at the depreciation of the Turkish Lira in October and over the last few years

It is about time I looked at a currency.

Since, Erdogan sacked two deputy governors of the country’s central bank last month and the Turkish Lira has lost nearly 60 per cent of its value since 2018, making it among the worst performing currency of any emerging market, it is a good choice for an analysis.

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 Here is the chart for the last month vs the Euro

I will not pay too much attention to the chart angles as the time is assumed midnight but may be later in the day.

Immediately a number of features jump out.

Transiting Pluto has been stationed on the Lira progressed Saturn. It doesn’t get much more depressing than that. Pluto with Saturn represents  long term irrevocable structural change.

Pluto has of course been making its way through this part of the zodiac for a few years. It first passed Saturn at 16 degrees in 2016-17. Then in 2019-2020 the progressed Saturn and the Lira’s Pluto ( opposite at 21/22 Cancer) would have borne the brunt of the Pluto/Saturn/Jupiter conjunction.. ll very heavy – though Jupiter presumably provided some partial relief.

If that wasn’t enough we see that now progressed Mars is also conjunct the natal Saturn position. That is accentuated by the natal quincunx  between Saturn and Jupiter and between Saturn and the Moon and also the square with Uranus. That progressed Mars aspect has also been in effect since 2016. Mars is a trigger always but in market charts it can specifically indicate vigorous trade. So in this case we have the natal problems inherent in the chart activated by sellers.

It is not surprising then that we see that the events of October are broadly reflective of the trend for the last 5 years.



Indeed, if we go back to my 2016-2020 Lira forecast, it was pretty much doom and gloom all the way, with just a few short breathing spaces. Unfortunately for the Lira and the country my forecasts were correct.

Turkish Lira 2017-2020 (fortuna2020.blogspot.com)

Turning back to our astrological chart, we also see that Saturn has been stationed since September on the Lira progressed Venus , one of the significators for intrinsic value. It is no surprise to see that that progressed Venus is also quincunx the chart’s Neptune- the indicator of inflation. Turkey has been suffering very high inflation in the last year or more; indeed inflation is running much higher than the Lira depreciation would suggest: at least 20% over the last year but probably more.

The problem of inflation is further indicated by the transiting Neptune square to progressed Mercury- which has been in effect for rather longer than the Saturn transit.

The changes at the top of the bank are suggested by the progressed Sun square Sun, activated in October by the progressed Moon and tapping back into the progressed Venus configuration.

We can further note that events in October were given a further impetus but old “do it big” Jupiter opposing its natal position and by transiting Mars square Pluto.



Once again astrology describes it all.

Here’s a taster of what the next few months hold from my 2021-24 Lira (unpublished) forecast:

in August to November. ……there is a final return to the conditions of 2021 so value may turn negative again albeit for a few months.

December could see a turning point. Policy and rates may lead to some belief and there is definitely room for a sudden upside even though there is still limited trade in the currency. There is an ongoing inflation risk.

Instability characterises 2022 though.

January and February don’t start off too badly. But there is a likelihood that the currency might become more of a focus. Challenges to other currencies may have an impact on the Lira despite rate changes etc and due to inflationary pressures. There is a high likelihood of shocks leading to volatility, although there may be policies to mitigate these. This is also a time when values take leave of their senses and there is way too much inflation and detachment from reality despite policy attempts to control this.

It looks like out of the structural Turkey frying pan and into the global inflationary fire, perhaps .